Rocket Fuel Newsletter – 10/01/22
Happy October! It’s officially Spooky Season, and what better way to celebrate than by renting the haunted cottage from “Hocus Pocus”? Get ready to book on October 12 at 1:00 p.m. ET!
This week’s edition includes holiday sales projections and how the housing market impacts inflation.
Fuel Up! 🚀
Holiday Spending Expected To Rise At Slower Rate Than 2021
If you’re not into Spooky Season, October also means that the holidays are right around the corner. Deloitte’s annual holiday retail projections show a 4% – 6% rise in consumer spending this year, which is down from the 15.1% growth observed in 2021.
This year, experts are expecting:
- Inflation to increase dollar totals but minimize growth in sales volume
- Lower demand for durable goods and greater demand for consumer services like restaurants as the pandemic wanes
A healthy 17.8% of the expected $1.46T holiday sales are expected to come via e-commerce, which may give Jeff Bezos enough money to finally buy sharks with laser beams attached to their heads.
Mixed Reviews Of Netflix’s Plan To Add Commercials
Netflix shares rose 10% at one point this week after analysts touted the platform’s impending ad-supported tier, set to launch by 2023. Wall Street understandably likes money, which Netflix is poised to rake in either from the more expensive ad-free tier or the lower-priced ad-supported tier.
The problems? For marketers, it’s a $65 cost per thousand (CPM) that rivals the Super Bowl. For viewers, it’s more Flo.
Inflation is challenging the weather as the main subject of discussion when nobody has anything else to talk about.
For the last couple of years, we have been talking about shipping containers, gas prices and Jay Powell’s money printer.
As gas prices started to normalize, the July Consumer Price Index data finally showed inflation starting to dip.
Last week, we saw the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for July start heading south after peaking in June.
Finally, inflation is transitory, right?!
Yesterday, we saw the Fed’s preferred favorite report: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE).
It showed inflation on the rise again – gas spending was down, while housing was up.
If housing prices are peaking and existing home sales are down, how are people “spending more on housing”?
It’s because the massive home price growth we’ve seen since 2020 hasn’t fully made its way into the inflation indexes yet.
PCE for Housing is calculated by looking at how much a homeowner could rent their home for rather than what they paid for it.
Since folks typically lock in leases on rentals for 12 months, there’s a lag for when the increased home prices finally hit the newspapers.
The Fed has a tough job – it’s like steering a boat rather than a car. It takes longer for the changes you make at the wheel to impact the direction of the vehicle.
The Fed must maintain inflation expectations, but the data is complex and nuanced, and the era of clickbait makes it that much tougher to explain when the headline numbers are released.
The Fed expects rental prices to keep increasing through the middle of next year – might not be a bad time to trade that lease in for a mortgage on the right home!
Located just north of Detroit in Troy, Michigan, C 4 D Mortgage Company has grown into one of the 50 largest mortgage brokers in the United States since its inception in 2007. Owner Chinmay Deshpande credits much of their success to their involvement in the community, as well as the trust they’ve been able to earn from their clients over the past 15 years.
Rocket Fuel was able to catch up with Chinmay and get his take on his company’s success.
Rocket Fuel: What is C 4 D’s story? How did it start? When did it start?
Chinmay Deshpande, Owner, C 4 D Mortgage Company: C 4 D are my wife’s and my initials, and once we started, we never looked back. Each year we’ve closed more loans than the previous year.
I used to work for another mortgage company, and I was a good processor. I realized I could make more by starting my own company. Then the subprime crash happened, and I was just writing a ton of loans.
RF: How did you scale your business from nothing?
CD: I sometimes don’t know how we did it. We always try to do right by our clients – once we give a rate to a customer, we stick with it. Sometimes credit comes in low, but we still give the same rate we promised them.
RF: Who is your primary clientele?
CD: The Indian community. Because we are Indian, they trust me somehow, and they all come to us.
RF: You’re licensed in several states across the country. What was the reasoning behind that?
CD: I had a friend who wanted help, so I taught him the business in North Carolina. He started doing well, so I thought, why not get more states? We’re up to 11 states now, but all of our loan officers are in Michigan. Our people in Michigan refer us to people in other states, and then we start getting close with realtors [in those other states].
RF: What kind of activities/promotions do you do for your local community?
CD: We’re at a lot of Indian functions. What we do is give out promotional stuff like water bottles, and whenever the community has an event like a cricket game, we sponsor it and hand out refreshments.
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- Case-Shiller Index Shows Home Price Deceleration In July
- Mortgage Delinquencies Near Record Low In August
- June Purchase Rate Lock Volume Down 18% From June 2021
- Existing-Home Sales Decrease For Seventh Straight Month
- Median Rent Falls Month-Over-Month For First Time Since Dec. 2021
A big shoutout to all the partners who joined us in Detroit this week for our largest All Access to date! What exactly is All Access? Our own Mike Fawaz can answer that.
Ali and Chris were our two fastest solvers last week; Ali’s time of 1:06 narrowly edged Chris’ 1:07. Congrats to the other 11 solvers who finished last week’s in under 2 minutes!
This week’s puzzle gets 3 Rockets out of 5.